Monday 31 October 2011

Insight 2011 Conference Minneapolis USA – 23rd-27th October

Global Tissue and Hygiene Markets

Howard Telford, Research Associate of Euromonitor International (USA) observed that the global tissue and hygiene retail markets were immune to the recession and apparently detached from the core economic trends.  However the global picture hid stasis in North America and Western Europe which had been offset by growth in the emerging markets where population and incomes were still growing.  Between 2005 and 2010:
·         Global $ growth of 32.4% was made up of an emerging market growth of 75% and a developed market growth of 12%.
·         Highest growth rates (11-12%) were in Latin America, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.  Asia Pacific as a whole grew 7.5%.
·         The USA was still the largest market ($26bn) but China ($18bn) is catching up fast with 9.2% per annum growth. 
·         China has accounted for 80% of the Asia/Pacific growth, but India hardly progressed.
·         P&G ($25.3bn at retail globally) were the largest supplier.  K-C was second at $23.3bn and SCA third at $6.3bn. 
·         Both P&G and K-C had grown at 4.5% p.a. over the 5-year period, but for 2009-10, P&G showed 5.4% growth against K-C’s 4.3%.
·         All major manufacturers grew through repositioning their presence in emerging markets with China being the key target.
·         Private label remains over-dependent on mature markets, especially Europe which has seen both low growth and a resurgence of brands in 2010.
·         Supermarket and Hypermarket sales still dominate, but Internet sales are now growing at 25% per year and in Korea the internet accounts for 45% of diaper sales.
·         Incontinence products have grown at 40% p.a. from a low base in developed markets and appear unaffected by economic instability.
For the future, considering the 2010-15 period:

Friday 7 October 2011

Man Made Fibres Conference - Dornbirn Austria Sept 2011


740 delegates from 30 countries were drawn to Dornbirn for this, the 50th annual conference organised by the Austrian Man-Made Fibres Association.  Germany provided most delegates (264) and with Austria (192) and Switzerland (102) the majority language was German.  There were 3 simultaneous sessions so a maximum of a third of the total could be heard. Several were not available in hard copy and more than usual were available only in German.  The tight scheduling left little time for questions.

Opening Address

Friedrich Weninger CEO Lenzing and President of AMFA noted that in 1962 the first AMFA conference recorded a world fibre production of 15 million tonnes, 0.7 million being synthetic and 10.1 million cotton.  Last year the total had reached 73 million tonnes, 43 million being synthetic,  25 million being cotton and man-made cellulosics had reached a record 4.2 million tonnes.  Continued growth of the total fibre market was expected to be 3% per annum, with cotton having plateaued and man-made cellulosics due to grow fastest at 9% pa.

Predicting short term trends was trickier than ever:
·         The stock market fluctuations were caused by speculation unbacked by real effects
·         Customers did not really know what they wanted and could do no more than extrapolate from past trends.
Megatrends were easier:
·         The future would be dominated by developments related to energy supply, healthcare, biotechnology, sustainability, well-being and the convenience of nonwoven materials.
·         Nonwovens would grow to consume 25% of total fibres. (with 100 million tonnes fibres expected to be used by 2020, this equates to 25 million tonnes of nonwovens)
·         Total Technical Textiles (including NWs) would be half the total.
·         Wood will remain the most important, but not the only source of cellulose for fibre.  Waste biomass sources were being developed.