South America Nonwoven Update

Rick Jezzi of A D Jezzi and Associates updated the SA demographics noting that the birth-rate was now decreasing (down 1% per year) as religious principles waned and more women worked.  The female population (15-49) was increasing at 1% per year and the over 65’s at 3.8%/pa.  The average PPP/cap will be $12500 in 2017, the wealthiest countries being French Guyana, Chile and Argentina.  Brazil, the most populous country in SA, accounted for half the people and 60% of the GDP, and will have a PPP/cap of $10500 in 2017. 

• Diapers will grow at 5.6% CAGR through 2017.  There are numerous producers but the two biggest (unnamed) take half of the total sales.  Penetration will rise from 53 to 62% (2011-17)
• Femcare will grow at 6.1% CAGR through 2017 and here again of the numerous producers, the 2 majors take 54% of pantyliner sales and 42% of pads. Penetration will rise from 67 to 85% (2011-17)
• The embryonic adult inco market is expected to grow at 10% CAGR through 2017. Penetration will rise from 20 to 27% (2011-17)
• Baby wipes will also grow at 10% but use lower basis weights and more spunbond than NA.  Household wipes are practically non-existent. Penetration will rise from 39 to 62% (2011-17)

Mr Jezzi expects to see the industry consolidate and many smaller players to disappear.  Mass merchandising will grow and the whole industry will become more professional as technology is transferred from NA.  Brazil is leading the sustainability movement with its highly available low-cost bio-feedstock.  Braskem and Dow are already producing “drop-in” bio-PE.  Industrial PHB/PHV’s are becoming available and Solvay is producing bio-PVC.  An airlaid nonwoven producer is needed in the region.