Monday, 15 October 2007

The consumer's view

Globalisation and Climate Change
Peak Oil?
The disposables on which the nonwovens market has thrived for the last 40 years are now coming under pressure due to increasing consumer concerns revolving around concepts of sustainability, carbon footprint, renewability. They currently ignore the problems likely to arise from peak oil, maybe because in reality these are driving the sorts of change they seem to want.
We can already see consumer attitudes changing:
  • Western consumers are realising that they can’t go on buying more and more so the pattern spending is changing to “sensible consumption”.
  • Health, Wellness, Ethical, Fair-trade, Organic and Sustainable will be the watchwords of future marketing in the West. Nonwovens will be affected.
  • They believe future sustainable products should optimise the use of renewable resources and be designed for multiple use through recycling.
  • Buying eco-friendly goods is becoming fashionable and we could be about to witness a transformation of the fortunes of what to date have been “niche” eco-friendly hygiene products.
  • The use of, and need for, ecofriendly products with environmental features and claims such as organic, biodegradable and flushable continues to grow.
  • Biodegradable fibres, such a viscose, lyocell, cotton (organic) and PLA are all in short-supply and significantly more expensive than 6 months ago.
  • Protein and chitin fibres are appearing in a wipes context for the first time.
Coming Next: Future diaper raw materials?

Sunday, 14 October 2007

Peak Oil?



The growth of industry in general and the nonwoven industry in particular has been driven by the availability of cheap energy and cheap polymers derived from oil. For absorbent hygiene products polypropylene, polyethylene and sodium polyacrylate are the key polymers and it is now clear that these products will not be cheap in future. When oil production peaks polymer prices will fluctuate wildly about an upward price trend and the need for lower cost alternatives will become urgent. When is world oil supply likely to peak and what will be the effect on prices when it does? This is a big debate with a wide variety of facts and learned opinions being available. Here are some of the latest.
  • The normal production curve of a non-renewable resource was described by Hubbert (1962) to explain trends in crude oil production in the United States. Hubbert’s curve worked for the USA and it is reasonable to suppose that Global production of crude will also follow a similar normal curve.
  • Much of the present debate on this subject focuses on when exactly the global production peak is expected to occur. Most estimates have placed the peak within the first decade of the 21st century, i.e we might already be there. When it happens oil price will rise steeply and remain volatile at a higher level as replacements take over, even though ~50% of the oil is still in the ground.
  • The point is illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the oil boom of the 19th century. Source: Price trends over a complete Hubbert Cycle: the case of the US whaling industry in the 19th Cy - Association of Peak Oil
Compare the 1835 to 1855 price curve above with the last 20 years of Brent Crude below:
Source: www.oilnergy.com
Despite oil price being high for several years, oil discoveries now run at only 9 billion barrels/year compared with 55 billion barrels/year in 1965.
  • With discoveries at 9 billion barrels/year, consumption is at 30 billion and rising.
  • North Sea oil production is 40% down on 1999, while oil prices have increased 7-fold – so no evidence here of previously non-economic fields being exploited now that prices are high.
  • The International Energy Agency, optimistic last year, now predicts oil production will suffer a supply crunch in 2012 because above-ground geopolitical factors are restricting output now, and if/when these are resolved the below-ground geological reality will follow.
  • Non-OPEC oil will peak in 2010, and the geopolitical problems of the OPEC regions mean that they cannot be relied on to make up the shortfall. (Exxon CEO – 2007)
  • “Oil nationalism” will hinder the exploitation of the reserves in Venzuela and Russia.
  • New oil detecting techniques remain to be applied and when they are, the known reserves will increase substantially. But, when you build in optimistic reserve growth and optimistic technological forecasts for their exploitation you can only delay peak oil to 2020.
  • The Chairman of Total Oil is assuming Peak Oil by 2020 and is asking governments to reduce energy use to delay this further.
It is not always clear whether these predictions include the unconventional oil sources such as tar sands, and increasing use of bio-ethanol and bio-diesel may also delay peak oil further. That said, if we think of these fuels making up a shortfall in transportation demand - the largest single oil usage – then we should consider these opinions recently published:
  • Production of oil from coal and/or tar-sands will not grow fast enough to compensate for falling conventional oil production and rising demand.
  • Production of liquid fuel from coal and/or tar-sands is energy and water intensive, and the resulting fuel is less efficient than conventional gasoline.
  • Carbon dioxide emissions from the production and use of this liquid fuel is significantly higher than for oil so its use will impact global warming more than conventional oil.
  • 20% of US corn now goes to ethanol for blending with gasoline. But:
    • $1.30/gallon of subsidies for ethanol blenders distort the economics.
    • Ethanol only provides 85% of the power of gasoline.
    • On an energy yield basis and excluding all subsidies and tax breaks, ethanol is now costing $7/gallon compared with $3/gallon for gasoline.
  • Should food acreage be used to power vehicles? No problem in the USA now, and in future yields will increase due to GM. But for the world as a whole this would be unacceptable.
  • Bio fuel from US corn is a self delusion: current yields are heavily based on petrochemotherapy (oil-based fertilisers and pesticides) and massive irrigation – and can not be extrapolated into a major energy source.
  • George Bush is now supporting ethanol from wood chips, grasses and agriwaste – i.e. from cellulose.
  • Cellulose ethanol would be a better option than corn even with oil at $40 barrel.
All the above opinions are related to the next 20 years. Further out, everyone seems to agree that the world will be switching from conventional oil to other energy sources at an ever increasing rate. It’s just the nature of those sources that remains obscure to us and the precise timing of the changeover.

Tuesday, 9 October 2007

More from Outlook 2007

Irina Barbalova (Euromonitor), Pieter Meijer (Fibreweb) and Prof Suzanne Berger (MIT) all sitting listening to Geleyn Meijer (LogicaCMG) talking about the life-changing www.



Irina Barbalova of Euromonitor International gave these listings of the world's largest nonwoven markets and those that are growing fastest.


Prof Hans Rosling of the Karolinska Institutet (Sweden) presenting compelling data on the influence of GDP/capita on childrens health for all the countries of the world. An earlier version of the full talk with its impressive graphics is available on the Gapminder site



Gabriela Grab Hartmann of Sustainability Asset Management talking about corporate sustainability and its effect on financial performance.



Approaching Sintra's Pena Palace, site of one of the many memorable EDANA cocktail parties...


... which became positively romantic as night fell.

EDANA Outlook 2007

Krzysztof Malowaniec of Paul Hartmann at the podium to open the conference with Richard Brennan (Kraton Polymers), Robert Stargel (Kimberly Clark), Jaap Favier (Forrester) and Gunnar Preifors (SCA Hygiene) left to right.



Pieter Meijer (Fiberweb) on the big screen questions Robert Stargel (Kimberly Clark) after his speech on Innovation in K-C



ExxonMobil's view on Energy Demand to 2030 as presented by Didier Lutsen...


....who deals with a question while Session Chairman Kenneth Strasner (Kimberly Clark) looks on.

SCA's Per Arfvidsson argued that at today's oil price they could burn wood pulp to make electricity more profitably than they could make paper...



...providing the trees were not too far away from the combined heat and power station



The Hotel Cascais Miragem provided some of the accomodation and hospitality and a stationary High provided a cloudless week. 362 delegates were pre-registered for what turned out to be another EDANA success!

Sunday, 7 October 2007

Globalisation and Climate Change

The first and most obvious answer is Globalisation leading to more of the same as the established technologies and markets of the developed world are applied to raise the living standards of the rest.
Increased global demand for nonwovens and disposables is assured for at least 10 years as the most populus regions of the world centred on China and India, once described as “under developed” aspire to the same standards of life and convenience as has been enjoyed in the last couple of decades in the developed regions. They, and then Africa, will rapidly catch up with what used to be called the developed world.
The situation in the Americas and Europe will be different as a result of increasing public awareness that two “megatrends” which have been evident for the last 40 years at least, are in fact real and need to be addressed with some urgency.
The first is Climate Change, now known to be caused by industrialisation, and the other is the depletion of the fossil reserves on which our 4 decades of uninterrupted growth have been based. We are now living in the transition period known as Peak Oil, and I’ll now turn attention to each of these megatrends.

Climate Change

The human race has proved so successful that the agricultural and industrial systems needed to sustain it, to further improve its living standards, and to grow it further are now known to be destroying the natural life-support systems on which it depends. At base the problem is one of overpopulation, but it seems politically unacceptable to address this issue directly. The essentials of life (“The hierarchy of needs”), clean air, water, uncontaminated food and a moderate temperature are all being affected (polluted?) by the non-essentials which range from ever-better housing through global travel for all, to the convenience products which allow us spend more time productively and less on just living. Attempting to reduce the impact of the growing population by reducing its demands for energy and non-essentials is now politically acceptable and governments around the developed world are competing to be “greener than thou”, while the developing world is claiming exemption on the grounds that they’re way behind in energy use.
A consensus is emerging. We now feel we must act quickly to reverse the build up of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide but methane is much more potent), in order to reduce global warming and hence the trend to a more energetic atmosphere and sea-level rise. Carbon dioxide levels are the key to global temperatures, and also to the relative success of the plant kingdom versus the animal kingdom. We often forget that animals were able to evolve to compete with plants because photosynthesis and other natural process removed carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and added oxygen. A balance where the two kingdoms thrived in each others company was arrived at until the growth of the human population, the onset of industrialisation, and the discovery that exponential growth was the only way to keep everyone happy. Since then, as amply illustrated in Al Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth”, we have been digging up fossil carbon, oxidising it in our energy generating processes, and putting it back into the atmosphere, appearing for all the world to be trying to reverse the atmospheric change which allowed us to evolve. Maybe it is already too late to reverse a warming process that appears to include positive feedback. A warmer world will release more of the carbon trapped in ice, dissolved in sea water and nearly-fossilised in the peat bogs currently inactive in the permafrost regions of the north. Biodegradation rates will increase, and more methane will escape to the atmosphere where this occurs anaerobically and uncontrolled. Melting polar ice will allow the newly revealed dark surface to absorb even more solar radiation where once it was reflected it back into space.
Carbon-offsetting has emerged as a mechanism for driving change to more sustainable industrial and transportation practises, and carbon-footprint now appears to be understood by most consumers. Most who understand it want to reduce it – even if it costs a little more. Furthermore, the fossil reserves we have been using so profligately could be about to increase in price sufficiently to force us into new ways of living and generating energy. While energy generation is beyond the scope of this paper, the by-products of energy generation from fossil fuels, ethylene and propylene, are fundamentally important to our industry’s synthetic polymer requirements, so the fate of fossil fuels needs to be considered as a factor important to future trends in nonwovens.
Coming next: Peak oil

Friday, 5 October 2007

EDANA Outlook Personal Care Products Conference Cascais, 26th – 28th Sept 2007

Key Points
• Asia Pacific will be largest absorbent products market by 2011.
• Eastern Europe and Latin America have shown the highest growth rates since 2001.
• Ethical consumerism and concern for the environment could cause a backlash against disposability.
• “Globalisation” is in conflict with “Sustainability” especially in the textile industry where part-processed yarns and fabrics are shipped between continents several times to save cost.
• K-C's mission is to “innovate, develop and source advantaged nonwoven solutions” and be supplier of the year every year.
• An EDANA-sponsored study concluded that medical disposables are a relatively unattractive industry with low margins, high investments and huge competition.
• ExxonMobil report the availability of plenty of oil for the foreseeable future – political instabilities excepted.
• SCA will soon be able to make more money by burning wood pulp to generate electricity than by converting it into paper.

Global Hygiene Trends

Irina Barbalova, Head of Disposable Paper Products Market Research and Euromonitor International (UK) listed the key trends:

• People are getting richer (especially in middle/old age)
• They lead more hectic lives
• They are walking 10% faster than 10 years ago.
• They are marrying later or not at all
• They want to be fitter and healthier for longer.
• They want better products to make life easier, but…
• A backlash is now occurring, and compromises with being “Green” are being sought.

Ethical consumerism and an inclination to support “green” products wherever they appear is higher on the agenda than last year. In fact buying eco-friendly goods has become fashionable and “niche” hygiene products are moving into the mainstream.

Euromonitor $-based statistical headlines were as follows:

• Eastern Europe (16%) and Latin America (11%) account for over a third of global hygiene growth since 2001. (Asia Pacific grew 5% in the same period)
• Based on 2006 sales, USA , China , Japan , UK and France are the world's top 5 largest markets.
• Based on 2005-2006 growth, China , USA , Russia , Mexico and Brazil are the world's top 5 most dynamic markets.
• For personal care products globally, most growth between 2005 and 2006 came from Inco (10.5% growth), followed by diapers (7%), Femcare (6%), Wipes (4.8%) and Cotton Wool (3.2%).
• Household wipes grew less than 1% between 2005 and 2006. They are losing their novelty value and a return to traditional cleaning methods appears to be occurring.
• Within personal care wipes, facial cleansing wipes were now a billion dollar market growing at 10% pa, twice the size of the general purpose wipes which were growing at 9% pa and a third of the size of baby wipes now growing at 8% pa.
• Femcare wipes grew fastest (21%) but were a tiny market in comparison.
• Deodorant wipes, similarly small, recorded 5% growth.
• Baby wipes showed renewed growth (2005-2006) due to new introductions from P&G and KC.
• Wipes shares globally in 2006 were 64% baby, 20% facial, 11% general purpose, 3% deodorant, and 2% femcare.
• Household wipes now use improved detergents, better fabrics, more convenient device-like formats and more disinfecting power.
• Personal wipes have more application formats (hair wipes, foot wipes, male wipes, bald head wipes), and increasing novelty in packaging, scents and lotions.
• Natural ingredients, organic cotton, flushability and biodegradability claims are increasingly seen in facial wipes, and new gadgets for their use are being tested.
• “Silk” softness is a new feature in femcare, and here increasingly convenient and discreet packaging is appearing.
• “Green” disposable diapers are attracting more interest because washables remain unacceptable. Boy/girl, night/day and new ultra-premium diapers are emerging.

The Outlook to 2011:

• Asia Pacific will become the largest absorbent hygiene market - $18 billion sales growing at 6% per annum. China 's birth rate will increase due to the abandonment of the 1 child policy and this market alone will add $3bn by 2011.
• North America ($15 billion) and Western Europe ($12 billion) will show less than 1% pa growth.
• Latin America ($11 billion) will grow at 7.5% pa. Eastern Europe ($5.3 billion) will grow at 9.5% pa.

However, increasingly ethical consumerism and concern for the environment in an increasingly homogenous world could cause a backlash against disposables.

Energy Outlook


Didier Lutsen replaced Christophe Lacroix of ExxonMobil ( Belgium ) to review their projections for energy costs through to 2030.

World population would reach 8 billion mainly due to growth in non-OECD countries. Global GDP would grow at 2.8% per annum to reach $75 trillion and the energy demand would grow at 1.6% per year to reach 320 Million Barrels per Day of Oil Equivalent. This latter figure was a saving of 140 MBDOE over that predicted in 2005 assuming 2005 rates of energy use would continue. The savings came from energy-use plateauing in OECD countries, the growth coming mainly from expansions of the non-OECD economies. Most of this growth would be based on coal, gas and other sources, growth in liquids (crude plus oil-sands, biofuels etc) slowing. “Other” or the non-fossil energy sources would grow to 60 MBDOE by 2030 mainly due to growth in use of biomass, nuclear and hydro/geothermal sources. Wind and solar power would amount to no more than 2.6 MBDOE.

Natural gas demand would grow at 0.5% per annum in North America to reach 90 Billion Cubic Feet per Day by 2030, only 60 BCFD being available locally. Imports of Liquefied Natural Gas would make up the bulk of the shortfall, with a little coming in by pipe. In Europe, growth would be at 1.5% per year to reach 70 BCFD by 2030, 40 of this being piped in from Russia , and 20 being imported as LNG. Asia Pacific gas consumption would increase at 3.7% pa to 90 BCFD by 2030, 50 BCFD being produced locally, and the majority of the rest being LNG from the Middle East and Indonesia .

The consequence of this continuing dependence of fossil fuels would mean that global CO 2 emissions would continue to rise by 1.6% per year, mainly due to non-OECD expansions. Options for reducing atmospheric CO 2 levels included a switch to nuclear power, to advanced motor transport requiring much less fuel, to carbon capture and sequestration in depleted oil and gas fields, and breakthroughs yet to be made. Hydrogen for transportation remains energy intensive and complex, but the in-car generation of hydrogen using gasoline looks more promising and would reduce emissions by 45%. Carbon capture is expensive but pumping it into depleted oil and gas fields to push out the remaining fossil fuel looks practical.

Asked if political instability could limit availability of oil and gas, Mr Lutsen said it could and this had not been factored into ExxonMobils projections. Venezuela and Russia were reluctant to allow multinationals to exploit their reserves, and these states were spending their oil revenues on non-oil projects, and thus not reinvesting sufficiently. Nevertheless he felt there would be plenty of oil for the foreseeable future. Reserves estimates had been increased due to new extraction technology becoming viable at the higher prices. Carbon capture is expensive but pumping captured CO 2 into depleted oil and gas fields to push out the remaining fossil fuel now looks practical. The costs of this “last drop” extraction would of course be very high.

EU Energy Outlook


Per Arfvidsson, Senior VP and CPO for SCA Hygiene ( Sweden ) listed the challenges facing EU energy policy as:
• High oil price leading to costly gas and electricity.
• Tight supply – any disturbances cause a price spike.
• Russian oil and gas supply security.
• Middle East volatility.
• Competition from China and India for energy
• Only 10 years of gas left in EU. Imports are essential.

The energy outlook is now heavily influenced by the Emission Trading System which collapsed in 2006, CO 2 emissions being valued at zero €/tonne earlier this year. By 2008, when ETS Phase II commences, this should be corrected and the 2005 price of ~€20/tonne CO 2 should be restored. The Phase II ETS will lead to a convergence of all power, gas and coal markets, and prices for all energy sources will increase as a consequence.

The EU has a strong political commitment to convert itself into a sustainable society and in addition to the ETS, subsidies based on Renewable Energy Certificates will be available to encourage electricity production from renewable resources. When the value of electricity and the REC's are combined, their level at March 2007 meant that burning spruce woodpulp in SCA's combined heat and power stations made economic sense. In other words, rather than make paper, SCA could now use the wood to generate electricity more profitably - providing the wood could be sourced within about 300 km of the power station.

Asked if incineration of waste would be a useful energy source, Mr Arfvidsson and Mr Lutsen thought it would be and it already plays a big part in SCA's energy generation – more so than wind-power.

Innovation at KC


Robert Stargel, VP of Kimberly-Clark's Global Nonwovens Division (USA) defined innovation as “People implementing ideas that create new value”.

His examples of K-C's “Business Enabling Innovations” were spunbond for diapers, stretchable laminates for training pants, Coform for wipes, and SMS for medical barrier fabrics.

• Spunbond had been pioneered when KC installed Lurgi lines, which they debugged and perfected prior to licensing to Reifenhauser.
• Meltblown had been acquired from Exxon and similarly perfected.
• K-C's combination of the two in SMS had enabled new product categories to emerge.
• “Product enabling innovations” were listed as
• fastening loops (code-named PUB),
• Stretch-ears for diapers (NBL),
• Breathable cloth-like barriers (SFL)
• Thin absorbent cores (TABBI)

K-C has always placed high priority on intellectual property and is a prolific patenter, with 351 granted patents in nonwovens between 2002 and 2006, c.f. 145 from P&G, 49 from PGI and 42 from Freudenberg. Their innovation process has involved vertical integration from vision and ideas through polymer to converted product, and they develop the technological expertise to make this possible.

For the future their mission would be “to innovate, develop and source advantaged nonwoven solutions”, and they target being “Supplier of the Year” every year. To achieve this they would continue to use past successful strategies but with more emphasis on consumer insights, the internet, sales of IP, partnerships, open innovation and modelling. For consumer insights they used the ?whatif! innovation company. Partnerships with Pegas and various universities (including Caltech, MIT, Michigan , Oklahoma , NC State) were mentioned. Open Innovation was exemplified by the new “Sun Signals” indicator to show when children had had enough sun, and the “Cool Alert” aid to potty training.

In conclusion, Mr Stargel observed that while consumer insights drive short-term innovations, consumers don't know what they will need in the longer term, and so K-C's job is to try to anticipate these needs. He foresaw the talent pool shifting to India and China , hence the need for special initiatives to get US kids more interested in science, in addition to moves in Asia to harness the innovation potential there. They had launched an Innovation Center in Korea , a Hub and Spoke network in India and were partnering with Donghua University in China .

Innovation in Elastomerics


Richard Brennan, VP Personal Care for Kraton Polymers (USA) introduced Kraton as the world's leading producer of styrenic block copolymers, a billion dollar company with 850 employees. They obtain styrene, isoprene and budadiene from crude oil and make 600 different products. The Kraton D range comprises unhydrogenated SBC's, while the Kraton G range is hydrogenated. They provide personal care consumers with fibres and glues which offer stretch, soft-touch grip, adhesion, strength and durability; and hence comfort and fit in the hygienic disposables containing them.

A new class of very high melt-flow polymers has been created for fibres and films. Bicomponent fibres and spunbonds with a PP sheath on a Kraton core, the sheath buckling due to the elasticity of the core, are now being made. These perform as well as polyurethane/polyethylene bicomponents, while costing less and being easier to spin. They outperform the cheaper elastic polypropylene. Further elasticity improvements have been achieved by using an unspecified “PP Blend” polymer to make the sheath, and these can also confer more softness and better drape. In addition to disposable hygiene products, applications in short-life fashion garments are foreseen, where laundering up to 5 times is all that's required.

Asked if the SBC fibres were sticky, Mr Brennan said they were, but only as spun, and not in the finished product. He thought a fully elastic diaper was now technically possible, the system costs were now attractive, but further cost-downs would need to make it practicable.

Open Innovation


Prof. Wim Vanhaverbeke of Hasselt University and Eindhoven University of Technology ( Belgium ) used Philips as an example of a company managing to increase innovation rate and introduce more new products without achieving better growth. He argued their new products were mainly for stagnating markets and that the way forward should be to focus on new business creation and “breakaway innovations”. The latter arose when new products created new markets, and analysis of the new product launches from 108 companies showed that only 14% were in this winning category. However these 14% created 40% of the improvement in revenue and 60% of the profit improvement.

Breakaway innovations were most likely to arise from an open innovation strategy, where the internal Basic Research->Development-> New Product route typical of large organisations was supplemented by deliberate acquisition of external technology through external research and technology licensing. Surplus technology would inevitably be acquired but this would give rise to ideas for new markets and failing that could later be sold on or licensed to other firms. In this open model, internal and external development costs combined would be less than the internal-only costs of the closed model, and revenues would be increased both from growing your own market and from sales of surplus technologies.

Problems arise from power-play when big companies collaborate in Open Innovation with small or start-up companies. An over-heavy approach might kill the spirit of co-operation and entrepreneurship and could even result in litigation if the approach is perceived as an abuse of power. Open Innovation management implies OI's integration into the business strategy, and deliberate enhancement of the connection-making capabilities of the company. Furthermore, ways of motivating smaller potential partners to want to make connections need to be devised. Dutch State Mines favour 3-way negotiations between the potential partner and both their venturing unit and a business unit. 2 deals emerge, and these are packaged to yield “a maximal win-win situation”.

Social Computing


Jaap Favier, VP, R&D Director of Marketing and Customer Experience at Forrester ( Holland ) argued that processing power is moving away from the big corporations to the edge of the network where consumers have ample computing power in their cheap phones and broadband-enabled laptops to get information from Google, Wikipedia, Trip Advisor, Second Life etc. The young are particularly prolific at communicating with one another, and even the increasingly large older generation is relying more on the web for communication. Corporations are “dropping through the hole in the donut” and loyalty to brands is diminishing. Forrester surveys show that emailed recommendations from friends/family, and consumer opinions posted on the web are trusted as much as if not more than articles in the traditional print and TV/Radio media, and more than any advertisements. Social networking sites like “My Space” are allowing individual opinions to be spread very rapidly: corporate messages are being ignored and marketing now needs a new set of rules.

The on-line communities are pyramidal with 4 levels of engagement:

• The top 7% are the “creators”, who write their own blogs and websites, and influence the opinions of others.
• The next 14% are the “critics” who develop the messages originated by the creators and add new angles. They write the customer reviews and participate in chat-rooms and fora.
• The next 21% are the “collectors” who belong to, and chatter on social networking sites.
• The bottom 58% are the “couch potatoes”, who read blogs and customer reviews occasionally, but still rely mainly on the traditional media.

So, future integrated marketing from the corporations must now:

• Push the Couch Potatoes.
• Provide content to the Collectors
• Engage in a dialog with the Critics
• Collaborate with and create a platform for the Creators.

Examples of how this could be achieved are being provided by:

• Nike, who were allowing their web-site users to design and buy shoes on-line for €145/pair. This was a loss-leader but it gave Nike advance information on the colours and styles which were likely to become popular in the near future.
• American Apparel (and others) have stores in Second Life which allow consumers to interact and demand new styles, thereby predicting fashion changes in the real world.
• Endemol has Big Brother on Second Life – Reality TV in a Virtual World!

The marketing rules were therefore being rewritten:

• Content is King becomes Contact is King• The medium is the message becomes The Response is the Message• We call the shots becomes They* call the shots.*Women are far more likely to share information on line than men.

Globalisation


Prof. Suzanne Berger of MIT (USA) observed that the traditional western worry about globalisation - jobs being exported to the East - was not being borne out by the statistics. These worries tended to be generated by politicians at election times, and should be considered as urban myth rather than reality. In 2003, only 13,000 jobs were transferred from the USA , this being negligible compared with the 140 million jobs available. The problem is not job losses, but a recent failure to create sufficient new jobs.

Globalization implies a single world market, with wage costs, capital costs, interest rates and service costs being uniform worldwide. This will never happen but the movement toward this ideal is important. Outsourcing and Offshoring are important mechanisms of globalisation, and the USA does both together, companies outsourcing mainly offshore. Japan in contrast just offshores, by for example setting up Japanese companies in low-labour areas and keeping control of the production process. Either way, Globalisation can lead to massively fragmented and dispersed production routes, and the best companies are those that can best cope with the resulting complexity. Their new workforces can be in China or India and these workforces could be coping with completely new technologies.

Dell and Gap are examples of US companies dealing with such complexity. Dell for instance claims its computers are made in the USA on the basis of 4.5 minutes of assembly in the USA of components sourced all over the world. Gap manages a complex and globally disperse production chain to deliver fashion items to Western consumers. Other companies, e.g. Samsung in electronics and Zara in fashion textiles succeed by operating fully vertical organisations and yet compete successfully with the fully outsourced and offshored operations. Zara's verticality gives them unrivalled speed of response to sudden demand for new fashions.

So, following cheap labour is not necessarily the winning strategy. Overall system costs are the key. For instance sweaters are cheaper to make in Italy than in Rumania where wages costs are a tenth of Italian levels, because the Italian workers skill and versatility allows them to keep machinery productive for far longer in any given week.

In conclusion, Prof. Berger said globalisation demands a new breed of corporate leader, capable of being a “boundary spanner” able to identify and build value chains from widely distributed and fragmented global resources. Asked if globalisation could be in conflict with sustainability she thought it could, especially in the textile industry where obtaining the lowest garment cost could involve shipping part-processed material between continents several times.

Sustainable Development


Ioannis Hatzopolous, External Relations Manager, P&G ( Germany ) introduced EDANA's 2007 Sustainability Report by reminding us that sustainability is a really simple idea which is really hard to implement. It requires synergy between economic growth, social responsibility and environmental stewardship but everyone's life will be improved. For business it is an opportunity, provided we focus on the solutions rather than the problems. Reporting data and trends in a transparent and responsible way is part of the solution and the 2007 report updates the 2005 report and demonstrates EDANA's commitment to continual improvement of the sustainability of disposables. The key environmental advances were recorded as:

• Absorbent weight down 40% in 20 years, so energy required reduced by 32%, global warming potential by 37% and Summer Smog potential by 43%.
• Disposables and cloth diapers have been shown to be similar in the latest UK life cycle analysis.
• Diapers account for <0.5% of all solid waste and about 2-3% of municipal solid waste.

For the future, further reductions in environmental impact, and better understanding of the waste issues would be sought. The emerging Mechanical-Biological Pre-treatment technology may allow further waste volume and biodegradables reduction as required by the EU landfill directive.

Sustainability in Personal Care


Gabriella Grab Hartman, Senior Equity Analyst at Sustainable Asset Management ( Switzerland ) explained how SAM, founded in 1995 to manage sustainability investments, now has CHF 6.2 billion of assets under management, is the first carbon-neutral company in Switzerland , and now employs 70 people worldwide from the headquarters in Zurich . They identify investment opportunities arising from climate change and the concerns surrounding it by ranking companies for sustainability using a web-based questionnaire. The sustainability score has been shown to correlate with overall financial performance. SAM calculates a financial equivalent of the sustainability score, adds this to the stock markets “finance only” valuation of the company and arrives at a “Fair Value” which predicts how the share-price should develop.

Turning attention to the Personal Care sector, Ms Hartman identified demographic changes, both the ageing of developed country populations and the rising wealth of the emerging countries, as important. Also, consumer habit changes (rising expectations from global interconnections on the web) and resource shortages as the oil supply is depleted would be key drivers. Transparency, i.e. more reporting of non financial KPI's, Supply Chain Management (setting high environmental standards for suppliers) and reducing the environmental impact of the entire supply chain would become increasingly important.

Incontinence – The future for all?


Björn Uddenberg, Director of Incontinence Care at SCA ( Sweden ) said that of SCA's €11bn sales, 21% were in personal care and just over half of this were from sales of the Tena range of incontinence aids. Despite the title, 60-65% of 85 year olds will be continent and remain so for the rest of their lives. Incontinence only affects 5-7% of the population, is three times as prevalent in women as men, and the market for incontinence aids is growing at 5% per year. SCA lead the world in providing disposable incontinence products (26% share) followed by KC with 12%, Kendall with 8%, Hartmann with 7% and Unicharm with 6%. Outside the EU, NA and Japan the market remains tiny.

The key factors driving growth are:

• Communication: breaking the taboo.
• Discreet, leak free products.
• Further progress in light female incontinence pad design.
• Population ageing.
• Reimbursement of costs of products by health care providers.

Sales to Western light female incontinents, and the 65 – 80 age group would grow by 27% (2005-2025). Sales to the 80+ demographic would grow fastest at 72%, these numbers assuming an EU population decrease of 2% over that timescale.

In 2006 the global inco market (valued at €5 billion) would be 40% institutional care, 26% home care and 34% retail sales, growing at 3, 6 and 8% pa respectively. Institutional products are subject to pressures to reduce public spending, but they account for less than 1% of national health spending while affecting >10% of the total value chain.

Product designs have improved markedly in the last decade with pants, belted briefs and pouches being introduced. Alternatives to disposables, such as drugs and surgical treatments, will not dramatically change the rules. Too many people are reluctant to take drugs continuously, or subject themselves to surgery.

Measuring Quality of Life


Alan Cottenden of University College London stepped in at short notice to give Mandy Fader's ( University of Southampton - UK ) paper on the effects of incontinence products on the quality of life.

QoL was defined as:

• Physical, psychological and social well-being
• Personal relationships and sexual health
• Freedom from pain
• The ability to lead the life we wish to.

Effects on QoL should be assessed as part of the evaluation of an absorbent product and a way of quantifying QoL is needed to provide hard evidence to justify the development of improved products. Product Performance Questionnaires can be used to assess the functional characteristics of a pad (e.g. leakage, fit, discreetness, ease of use, comfort etc), but a QoL assessment could measure the impact on life, or the “so what” implications of the PPQ data. Most existing QoL tools measure the improvements in a patients condition following “cures” brought about by drugs or surgery. Pads are used simply to manage a condition without affecting a cure or changing the symptoms, so the existing QoL tools are inappropriate. The University of Southampton is therefore developing a questionnaire for QoL assessment of incontinence management where symptoms remain unchanged.

Communicating the benefits of hygienic disposables


Stephanie Christmann, Communications Manager of SCA Personal Care and Chair of EDANA's HAPCO Communications working group introduced the “Right for Hygiene” programme, a 2 year pan-European initiative arising from collaboration between Hapco and the Wet-Wipes group.

The objective was to build a series of communications which:

• Allow the hygienic disposables industry and its products to be recognised as having inherent social value.
• Increase knowledge, understanding and acceptance of hygiene products
• Enable EDANA to be a credible dialog partner with target audiences

The target audiences were listed as:

• All levels of government policy makers
• Opinion forming media
• Industry associations especially waste and wastewater treatment
• Health workers
• Voluntary groups dealing with childbirth and care
• Nonwovens suppliers

Activities would involve researching the benefits of hygienic disposables, producing leaflets about the products, and setting up a dialog with key audiences to create a community of interest.

The EDANA/Solvay MBA project


Laurent Gheerhart, Solvay MBA at the University of Brussels ( Belgium ) described the Business Field Project where by teams of 2-4 MBA students would spend 100 man-hours over 3-5 months on a project submitted by “industry”, while being coached by professionals and having privileged access to a large information and people network.

EDANA had sponsored a project on medical nonwovens. The budding MBA's had analysed and modelled the production process and the value chain and subjected it to the Porter 5-forces analysis. They concluded it was, for both roll-goods and converted product producers, a relatively unattractive industry with low margins, high investments and huge competition. However if it could be located in an emerging country (instead of EU) and could differentiate itself by adding new services and technology, there could be high market growth potential. The main advantage of location in an emerging country would be wage rates, and so the rate of convergence of these wage rates with EU rates would affect the returns over the life of the project. These studies cost around €11,000, said to be nominal compared with consultants fees.

Getting More from MBO's


Chris Fuller, Director of Equilia Ltd (UK) described the principles of organising, running and exiting an MBO. He has lived through several management buy-outs and is now sharing his learnings. Equilia is his own company, formed after he left Accantia, a management buy-out of the Lil-let tampon business from Smith and Nephew. Accantia was formed in 2000, and sold the South African division of Lil-lets in a separate MBO. Exit strategy involved selling to a secondary buy-out in 2004 and the company was split in a further MBO in 2006.

The significance of MBOs was illustrated:

• €160 billion of MBO deals in 2006, up 25% on 2005.
• Private Equity now employs 2.8 million people in the UK , or 19% of the non-governmental workforce.
• For investors the returns have been outstanding, and for management, increased wealth, enjoyment and independence are typical benefits.
• PE funds easily outperform all the stock market indices over all intervals up to 10 years.

Health economics


Prof Hans Rosling of the Karolinska Institutet ( Sweden ) gave his now famous (You Tube, Google Video) talk using the “Gapminder” software to illustrate the relationships between health and wealth in all the countries of the world. A possible relevance to nonwovens came from his suggestion that the per capita GDP has to be above $10/day for disposable hygiene products to start to be sold. The paper was not in the proceedings, but the full performance can be viewed on the web at


The Life-Changing Web


Geleyn Meijer, Group Innovation Director – LogicaCMG (Holland) observed that the IT industry is going through a transition from providing products to providing services and thought in future personal care product provision would be replaced by provision of personal care services. Such innovations in service provision are not easy to achieve, but LogicaCMG, claiming to employ 40,000 people in 41 countries, has harnessed this enormous talent-pool to provide us with the following key principles to guide the process:

• “Half measures don't deliver innovation”
• “David can beat Goliath”
• “The internet gives power to the people”
• “Business model innovation does not come from consumers”
• “Simplicity is not easy”
• “A business innovation can be made to last”

The speech failed to support the original contention that personal care services would replace products. The text provided no examples of innovation from personal care industries. Neither followed EDANA's printed summary. There were no questions.


Calvin Woodings


3 rd October 2007

Tuesday, 2 October 2007

Raw Material and Manufacturing Trends.

The theme of the last 35 years has been the progressive replacement of fibres and absorbents obtained from biomass with fibres and absorbents obtained from fossil reserves. Within that megatrend we’ve seen:
  • Polyester replacing viscose rayon and cotton in blends, initially as a cost saving measure.
  • Embossed latex-bonded 100% polyester coverstocks for improved surface dryness (and lower cost).
  • Conulated film replacing fibrous coverstocks on femcare and adult incontinence products.
  • 100% PP staple nonwovens, thermally bonded and embossed – for even drier coverstock and lower cost.
  • Polyacrylic superabsorbents replacing fluff pulp.
  • 100% PP Spunbonds replacing staple in coverstock and backsheets.
  • Air-Laid pulps replacing latex bonded fibres in wipes.
  • Hydroentangled fibres replacing air-laid in wipes.
Nonwovens Manufacturing Trends
The move to synthetic polymers allowed spunbonding to develop and started the “arms race” between dry laying and spunbonding that has transformed the economics and quality of both processes. Leaving aside the early history of spunbonding when it was restricted to the inventors, e.g. Dupont, ICI and Freudenberg, the technology began to transform the industry when machines first from Lurgi and later from Reifenhauser and others began to replace the traditional card and bond processes. These machines which effectively by-passed fibre producers and allowed the nonwovens producer to convert polymer chips directly into nonwovens were initially slow, relatively narrow, and incapable of making a lightweight coverstock to match the carded product. However in the last 25 years, driven by the expanding market for disposables, they have become the low cost producer of quality lightweights. Along the way, melt-blowing heads positioned between the fibre spinnerets have allowed improvements in opacity, cover and barrier properties. Today’s machines are up to 7 metres wide run up to 700 m/min at basis weights down to 10 gsm with fibre counts down to 1 denier - and below with a melt-blow capability. Bicomponent fibres, usually PP/PE can be spun with little loss of output once the extra polymer handling kit and special spinnerets are added.
Spunbonding was transformed by German engineers and carding followed, again being re-engineered in Germany and Italy. Wide fast carding systems were developed to allow the thermal bonded staple coverstocks to be produced ever more economically, and these systems were later adapted to feed cellulosic blends into the newer hydroentanglement bonding systems. Up to the development of high productivity lines with hydroentanglement bonding in the 1990’s, almost all nonwoven machinery developments had been for the synthetic fibres: the earlier development of calendar bonding having led to the industry being largely re-equipped with systems that could no longer handle the natural polymer fibres efficiently.
Hydroentanglement on the other hand is perfect for inherently wettable, water swellable fibres of the cellulosic variety, and for the first time lightweight cellulosic nonwovens could be made where the softness of the cellulose could be properly perceived in a binder-free construction. Hydroentanglement, like spunbonding, was transformed, initially by one engineering firm (Perfojet) into a wide, fast, highly efficient bonding system which in turn allowed disposable wipes to be transformed from a nice-to-have product to an essential of everyday life.

Friday, 21 September 2007

Wipes and Femcare Trends

Even wipes, one of the original disposables, have in the last decade grown dramatically as clever marketing made them increasingly essential for a wide range of personal, domestic and industrial cleaning jobs. Here too, a sector once dominated by cellulosics has evolved to use increasing percentages of the non-renewables.
  • Back in the 1960’s the leading disposable wipe in Europe were “J-Cloths” made by the Chicopee division of Johnson and Johnson, these being shadowed by numerous own-brand versions, one of which was made by the company I was doing Research for at that time – the BFF division of Courtaulds –then the leading rayon producer and the leading supplier of fibres to nonwovens.
  • Baby wet-wipes were unknown, but most users of towelling diapers used a nonwoven “nappy-liner” and these were often used for the initial clean-up during a change. Incidentally the nappy liners were flushable and biodegradable.
  • Wet wipes as we know them now were initially used for hand cleaning when travelling, came in canisters, and were also made of either wet or dry laid rayon, latex bonded.
  • Air-laid woodpulp with a minor content of reinforcing fibres took the lions share of growth in the USA and Europe
  • In the 1990’s hydroentangled rayon/polyester blends were successfully introduced into Europe as premium-priced ultra-soft (c.f.air-laid) baby wipes.
  • Since then the growth in the wipes sector has been dramatic, with spin-offs into household wipes for kitchen, bathroom, floors and furniture, and into dry-dusters using statically charged tow fibres.

Femcare trends

External protection has had a similar evolution to diapers, initially being based entirely on natural materials, mainly cotton. Early products were reusable but as nonwovens became available for disposable (insert-pad) diapers, disposable sanitary pads could be made, these to being flushable and biodegradable but for the small percentage of incompletely cross-linked latex used to bind the nonwoven. Like diapers they too evolved to make use of the cheaper synthetic fibres, films and synthetic superabsorbents.
The tampon market was always regarded as a “fortress” by the cellulosic fibre producers, where prices were good, innovation was justified, and competition from non-absorbent synthetics unlikely. I can recall the excitement when in 1980 Tampax decided to launch a new tampon with the trilobal inflated-rayon which had been under development for the previous 10 years in Courtaulds Research, only to witness the initial dramatic success of P&G’s new “Rely” tampon – which contained superabsorbent powder on urethane sponge inside a polyester “tea-bag”, instead of absorbent fibres. “Rely”, probably for the wrong reasons, was associated with Toxic Shock Syndrome and was abandoned, and while the rayon industry breathed a sigh of relief, Tampax too postponed their launch of the trilobal rayon as too risky in the immediate aftermath of "Rely". P&G stopped production of “Rely” and the superabsorbent on which it was based, and exited tampons, until acquiring Tampax in the late ‘90’s. Had it been otherwise, tampons too would now be based mainly on non-renewable fossil reserves.